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Saturday Training: Leading analysis

This deal happened in termly Saturday training.
Card distribution analysis was always a commonplace in my blog. Now, it was still worth to be mentioned again.

Board 3
Vul :N-S
Dealer: South
South     North
 1NT         3♡*
 3NT         AP

3♡: 4 cards ♠, choosing contract
Lead: ♣7 (2nd/4th)

West thought for a while and lead ♣7. East followed ♣J. It's your show time. Please start. It was ridiculous. Totally 27 points, only 6 tricks. Even if you get 4♠ and you create a winner in ♡, still 8 tricks. There was an easy way that finessing ♡K directly or hope 3-3 in ♣. How to find the best way to try all the chance became a serious problem.



What comes first? For West, 3 cases, ♣97x, ♣7x or ♣97xx. Due to the period of his thinking and table sense, he hardly hold 4 cards ♣. In first two cases, why didn't he lead his 4 cards suit. That was to say, his longest suit was ♠. If he was 4-3-3-3, why didn't he lead ♡ or ♣. Leading major was a matter of course in no trump defense. So he might hold honors in both ♡ and ♢. ♡KXX was in a high possibility. So I played ♡J from hand, the deceptive hand, I thought. Firstly, I could know who hold ♡K. What's more, if West hold ♡K, he might duck, for him, the situation was unclear, he didn't which suit was the weakest. If East hold ♡K, playing ♡J seemed to be stupid. I knew that continuing ♡ was the best defense, but it was unreasonable for him to help declarer set up long suit. He might thought he was thrown in. If he didn't return ♡, he would not only be squeezed while cashing all ♠ and no any entry problem between table and hand. If he returned ♡, the contract would go down. And this was the only situation that the contract had been icy, but went down after playing ♡J. But I thought it was worth to gamble after analyzing leading carefully, although many players might disagree.

The full deal
Board 3
Vul :N-S
Dealer: South
On table, West ducked on the second trick. And I continued to play a small ♡, East hoped West to through ♢, letting West won with the ♡9. However, West returned ♠. Easily to plus one.

Leading analysis was quite important. Maybe in this case, building ♣ was the best choice, only 4 losers at most. After all, it was easy to guess ♠ in this case.

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