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Asian Game_ Supermixed Semi-Final_ Hongkong, China vs Chinese Taipei: A pity for Chinese Taipei

This deal happened in the third segment of the Asian Games Semi-finals, Hongkong, China vs Chinese Taipei.

Board 13
Dealer: North
Vul: Both
West open and no one overcall.
Contract: 3NT
Declarer: East
Lead: ♢T

Chinese Taipei bid a little bit high. This contract seems to be one down at least on a superficial look. Is there any hope for the contract? Definitely yes! If ♢ was blocked and knock out a right black A, just 4 losers, the contract was home. There is no point in ducking on the first trick. In fact, the declarer from Chinese Taipei did this! She played ♠KQ, South thought for a while and followed ♠5 and ♠2. I don't know whether South thought or not on table, in bbo, I felt that he thought. That means East knocked out the right A. However, the declarer didn't continue to knock out ♠A on the next trick. She shifted to ♣ which led the defenders to unblock ♢. In my opinion, if North hold ♠A, there is no need for him to duck, he would win and unblock ♢ directly, then find the entry of his partner. In another words, if South hold ♣A and the declarer knock out the ♣A first, the connection between table and hand would be lost. Table need two entries to play ♣ while there would be no entry to cash ♠. What's more, ♣ need to guess who had J. So in this deal, declarer must suppose ♠A was in South.

Unluckily, Chinese Taipei didn't catch the chance even if a quite nice play on the first trick. If this contract was home, 13 IMPs would be written on Chinese Taipei. Now Chinese Taipei Hongkong, China had won the match by 11.67 IMPs, 104-92.33. If the declarer did this, the history would be rewritten, Chinese Taipei would win the match by 1.33 IMPs.

The full deal
Board 13
Dealer: North
Vul: Both
West     North    East    South
 H.So      B.Ho    P.Liu     G.Ho
  1♠         Pass     1NT     Pass
  2♣         Pass      2♢       Pass
  2♠         Pass      3♣       Pass
 3NT        AP

The judgement for North on the first trick was quite difficult, throw away k or not. Analyzing the leading, he knew that declarer hold J. Playing A was quite abnormal. Three possibilities, (1) the contract had been home, (2) the declarer hold JXX and hoped North was KX or QX and forget to unblock. In this situation, the declarer also could follow small to hope North was KQX. It was meaningless to hope opponents make mistakes in such high level competition. (3) the declarer hold JX. The only hope for declarer was blocked between defenders. What's more, she didn't hold ♠A for sure. Otherwise, she should duck on the first two tricks.

Throwing ♢Q away might be a better choice, it is quite hard to say. A psywar!!!

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